The Lichtman Report
Not a week goes by that we don't hear about a new political poll and what it says about a presidential candidate. Then we have reporters analyzing these poll results. It is interesting that these poles are treated as prophecy even though they've constantly been proven inaccurate in judging electoral outcomes.
Donald Trump never had an approval rating higher than 40% yet the 2020 election was closely contested. Michael Dukakis had an 18-point lead in May of 1988 but was soundly defeated by George Bush. Polls also had Jimmy Carter beating Ronald Reagan, but he lost by a ten-point margin.
A political poll may say a candidate has a 42% approval rating but that means 42% of the 1300 or so people that were actually polled, as opposed to 40% of the entire country. Cell phones and caller ID have forced pollsters to increase the number of calls to get enough responders. This causes pollsters to shrink the sample sizes. Then that is taken in with the unreliability of the internet, and the hundreds of different polls make them almost worthless as predictors of which candidate will win.
There is one man, Alan Lichtman, who has successfully predicted the president in every election since 1984, with the exception of the 2000 election. in 2000 he predicted Al Gore who should have been elected. As Lichtman correctly points out “It was a stolen election. Based on the actual vote, Al Gore should have won going away, I proved this in my report to the United States Commission on Civil Rights. One out of every 9 to 10 ballots cast by a black voter was thrown out, as opposed to one out of 50 cast by a white voter. Most of those were not so-called hanging chads. They were “over-votes” because black people were told to punch in the Gore chad and then write in Gore just to be sure, and those ballots were all discarded. Political scientists have since looked at the election and proved I was right. Al Gore, based on the intent of the voter, should have won by tens of thousands of votes. I contend I was right about 2000, or at a minimum there was no right prediction. You could argue either way, I could contend, and a lot of people agree with me that I am 10 out of 10. but even if you say I'm 9 out of 10 that's not bad.” (It helped Bush that his brother Jeb was the Governor of Flordia at the time.)
Lichtman developed the system with a man named Vladimir Kelis-Borok who combined his system for recognizing earthquake patterns. Lichtman’s basic theory is that elections are won based on the strength and result of both parties, not on campaign ads and speeches. For example, I'm not happy with Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas situation so I might disapprove, but that sure as hell doesn't mean I would vote for Donald Trump. At the same time, there are Republicans who don't like Trump but will still vote for him because he is a Republican.
The Lichtman system has 13 True/False questions or “keys” for or against a candidate. If six or more of the “keys go against the Candidate they will lose. Here they are:
1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incoming party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: the incumbent Party candidate is the sitting president
4.No third party: there's no significant third party or independent campaign
5. Strong short-term economy: the economy is not in recession during the election campaign
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms
7. Major policy change: the incumbent Administration affects major changes in National policy
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term
9. No scandal: the incumbent Administration is untainted by Major scandal
10.No foreign/military failure: The incumbent Administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs
11. Major foreign/military success: the incumbent Administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs
12. Charismatic Incumbent: The incumbent Party candidate is charismatic or a national hero
13. Uncharismatic Challenger: the challenging Party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero
The Lichtman system correctly predicted Reagan would win despite his low approval in 1984. he correctly predicted George Bush would defeat Dukakis in 1988. Lichtman then surprised people by predicting George Bush would be defeated despite his US victory in the middle east. Lichtman pointed out the keys against Bush which included Key 12 (incumbent charisma) George Bush is about as charismatic as a New Jersey shopping center on Sunday morning” He said. Combine that with a charismatic challenger in Bill Clinton. Keys 5 and 6 (Short and Long-term economy) The US economy was in a recession at the time. Key 1(party mandate)
The Republicans had lost seats in the House of Representatives. Finally, there was key 4(No third-party candidate) Ross Perot cost the Republicans a lot more votes than the Democrats.
In 2016 Lichtman predicted that Donald Trump would win the election to the surprise of many. for one, Hillary Clinton wasn't an incumbent so she already had a few Keys against her. Of course, Trump lost by almost 3 million yet still managed to win. (Thanks Electoral College) Lichtman explained that he stopped predicting the popular vote after 2000 and just predicted which president would win. In 2020 he predicted Joe Biden would win due to Trump losing Keys 1 (party mandate) 5. And 6. (economy) 8. And 9. (Social unrest and Scandal) Trump had plenty of scandals and no military success (key 11) and key 12. Charismatic Incumbent. Donald Trump's Charisma only works with the 40% that love him. His personality has alienated even more voters, in contrast to some like Ronald Reagan who didn’t bring out the level of hate from democrats in the way Trump has.
Currently (June 15th, 2024) Lichtman Has Joe Biden winning re-election although he won't release His official prediction until August. in summary, Lichtman believes that governance is a lot more important than campaigning.” If voters feel the country has been governed well they will reelect the president or the nominees from the incumbent party, otherwise they won't. I agree. I highly doubt anyone Looks at a political ad and says “You know what I'm going to switch parties.”Lichtman Is not a believer in political polls, referring to pundits, political analysts, and media strategists, whose career is based on campaign marketing as “hucksters”.
Of course, it would be great if there were only two keys that everyone could agree on 1. Will the candidate put the well-being of the country above their own interest? and 2. Will they do a good job? Since that's not going to happen anytime soon, the Lichtman system is the best we've got.